End Times

We've been there before.

Recently a friend recommended the book, “End Times”, by Peter Turchin to me. Turchin is a Russian American scientist/professor who specializes in cliodynamics, which is the mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of the dynamics of societies. Turchin and his team analyze large amounts of data of historical events to identify patterns to inform our own society. Turchin is the leader of the Complexity Science hub and was a professor at the University of Connecticut.

When my friend recommended the book, I had an “Oh, yeah, I’ve heard of that guy,” moment, and then read the book. I remember seeing an interview with Turchin or listening to a podcast with him two years ago when “End Times” came out. But he’s been talking about this stuff for a while.

What he’s been talking about is the breakdown of America. He’s been talking about it for the last 15 years (at least). The Scholar Who Predicted America's Breakdown Says It's Just Beginning - Newsweek.

You can also hear him talk about it with Nate Hagen’s on The Great Simplification podcast as well: Peter Turchin: “The ‘Decline’ of Nations: How Elite Surplus and Inequality Lead to Societal Upheaval” - The Great Simplification.

Here’s the Message

What Turchin is saying is that America is breaking down, and that this is something that has happened to societies again and again throughout history. It’s nothing new, and no surprise. We could of course do something about it. But so could all of those other societies that fell into the same trap. Most of them don’t escape.

I highly recommend reading “End Times”. Turchin is an engaging writer, and though a pretty accomplished academic, his prose is accessible, and the message he’s delivering is easy to understand even though it is unsettling.

According to Turchin, elite society in America, like elites in many societies before, has created a "wealth pump". This wealth pump is a mechanism that transfers wealth from the general population to the elite, leading to increased inequality and social instability. The age of oligarchs we are seeing in America now is a recurring pattern throughout history, contributing to periods of social unrest and political disintegration.

The wealth pump contributes to the phenomenon of "elite overproduction," where there is a surplus of individuals aspiring to elite positions, exceeding the number of available positions. There are only so many Senate seats, House seats, CEO positions, and other prestigious positions for elites to chase. Think of it as a huge game of musical chairs. When there are far more elites than positions, the elites that are left out sometimes don’t take it too well.

This imbalance in wealth and power, coupled with the frustration of elite aspirants, can lead to social unrest, political instability, and even violence.

When the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favor of elites, political instability is all but inevitable according the the data in Turchin’s models.

Things may get better, but it takes a while.

Trends tend to reverse after long periods of persistent political instability according to Turchin.

It is possible for the ruling class to rebalance the system, stop the wealth pump and reverse elite overproduction in a relatively peaceful way, but such an outcome is rare. Things usually break down. Such a “soft landing” requires society to convince elites to endure reforms that go against their self-interests in order to prevent a crisis.

The wealth pump is ultimately so destructive, because it is so tempting to prime it. The leaders in a society, acting in their own selfish interests, tend to create institutions that favor the operation of the wealth pump. Over time, this leads to greater and greater inequality, elite overproduction, and there eventually comes a point where the pressure in a system can’t be contained anymore.

To avoid this unhappy result, a society generally needs to mobilize and organize its working class who are being cheated by the system, while at the same organizing and mobilizing the frustrated elites who found they had no chair when the music stops. If these two groups can work together, they can get things done. This is my interpretation of the book - not Turchin’s language. I don’t want to put words in his mouth. Read for yourself to learn the history, see the data and judge for yourself.

What the data says.

Near the end of the book, Turchin drops some stats that should give the leaders of our country (and any country) pause

• About 75 percent of the time these crises ended in revolution.

• About 40 percent of the time they end in a ruler assassination.

The good news is that America has been here before. About 100 years ago we had a gilded age, where the elites ran the wealth pump like crazy, society was highly unequal, and elites were overproduced.

What happened was the great depression, World War II, and a president (FDR) who convinced the elites that they could either deal with him (higher taxation and more social programs), or they could deal with people with pitchforks and torches in the streets. They chose reform, and for a few decades the wealth pump was shut down. Then it started up again in the 70’s - 80’s.

We will see if we have learned that lesson. The leadership in America today doesn’t seem to be up to that task - and I’m not just talking about the political party you don’t like. Corporate America and political America of all stripes seems intent on seeing how far they can push things. I they aren’t careful - they will find out.

Final thoughts from the author.

In the end, Turchin tells us that there is no permanent solution. A balanced social system with the wealth pump shut down is not necessarily stable itself. This system we have made takes constant effort to maintain.

But don’t listen to me. The man has his own Substack. Peter Turchin | Substack

Enjoy.

Another sort of book review coming Thursday on a similar topic. See you then.