If the Rich Lived Like the Middle Class

Would that solve the problem?

Let’s start Monday with something everyone loves.

Math.

No worries, I’ll keep it simple.

Other planetary boundaries matter, not just climate change. There are other greenhouse gases than just CO2. This is just a simple thought experiment, to gauge how much action by the richest ten percent can change the world for the better. So, we’ll just focus on Climate Change and CO2 for now.

As a planet, we emit about 37.5 billion metric tons of CO2 per year. I saw estimates from about 35 billion tons to 41 billion tons, so I’ll go with 37.5 billion, which corresponds nicely with this chart from Our World In Data.

The richest 10% emit half the CO2 in the world.

Rich transformed into the middle-class thought experiment.

The richest 10% vastly overconsume and are most responsible for CO2 emissions (and other environmental problems). So, let’s pose the question: “What if the richest 10% lived like the middle class?

For this exercise, we will pick the middle class in Europe, which is still a pretty high quality of life. The middle class in North America has a carbon footprint about twice that of their European counterparts.

Currently, the top 10% produce half the CO2 emissions, or about 18.75 billion tons of CO2 each per year.

Now let’s look at the CO2 emissions per capita by region. To do so, we’ll take a look at the Climate Inequality Report: 2023. The graphic below comes from that report.

The data above is from 2019, but the trend is still pretty much the same. North America burns the most CO2 per capita with a 68.8-ton average for the richest 10%, a 21.8-ton average for the middle 40%, and 4.5 tons on average for the poorest 10%.

For the sake of this argument, we are going to use the European middle class, with its average of 10.7 tons of CO2 emitted – as our goal. If the global richest 10% changed their ways and emitted like the European middle class we would lower global CO2 emissions from about 37.5 tons to 29.25 tons per year. This is the difference between the 18.75 tons the richest 10% currently emit to the potential 10.7 tons on average if they consume like middle-class Europeans. Is that enough?

According to the 2023 report, global average per-capita emissions reached about 6 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO₂e) in 2019. To have a high chance of staying below +1.5 °C global temperature increase, average per-capita emissions should be 1.9 tCO₂e between now and 2050. Carbon Dioxide equivalent is an even stricter measure, including all greenhouse gases, so keep in mind that the CO2 component of that number will be “lower”. So that 1.9 tCO₂e number to stay below +1.5 °C means that CO2 allowed will be “less than” 1.9 tons.

Right now, we are looking at about 2.5C warming on our current trajectory (with about 6 tCO₂e on average emitted by each person on Earth). A 2.0C degree world is halfway between 1.5C and 2.5C and would therefore coincide with emissions on average of about 4.0 tCO₂e.

If the richest 10% suddenly consumed like the European middle class, we would get to global emissions of about 29.25 tons CO2. Divide that by 8 billion people and you have a little under 4.0 t CO2. Add in other greenhouse gases and you are probably right around 4.0 tCO₂e, or a world where we see 2.0 degrees of warming over industrial levels.

I admit this is some back-of-the-envelope math. But I’m confident it gets me close to what we would see if the richest 10% just lived like they were your average European from now on.

Degrowth is the answer.

Caveat. The richest 10% aren’t going to live like the average European anytime soon.

Degrowth is part of the answer.

The math I did above assumes a business-as-usual economic model. That 10.7 tons of CO2 emitted by your average European does not assume a degrowth world.

What if it did? What if we lived in a world where the four-day work week, universal basic income, universal basic services, job guarantees, and other degrowth policies were the norm?

If the default setting of our economies and our societies put well-being first and staying within planetary boundaries was codified in law, policy, investment practice, and business practice, I wouldn’t need to write this blog.

But it isn’t, so I do.

If the richest 10% lived like the European middle class, we would be moving in the right direction. Moving to a well-being economy under degrowth principles would move us even farther in the right direction.