Shifting Baseline Syndrome

Things will get worse, and each generation will accept it as normal

Image courtesy of ecologyforthemasses.com

The phrase “shifting baseline syndrome” was coined by Daniel Pauly in 1995. Simply put, Shifting Baseline Syndrome is ‘a gradual change in the accepted norms for the condition of the natural environment due to a lack of knowledge of what came before. It is human nature to think the current state of nature is the natural state of nature, no matter how wildly that differs from what the past generations have experienced.

As the Earth warms, younger generations will accept that as normal. The more destructive storms will be accepted as normal. The reintroduction of tropical diseases where they haven’t been for hundreds of years will be accepted as normal. Hundred year floods happening every ten years will be seen as normal. High inflation from scarcer goods will be seen as normal. A degraded world will be seen as normal.

People fifty years ago, if you could fast forward them to today and showed them the rivers, the forests, the oceans, the air or the climate, they would say; “What the hell happened? This is terrible.”

While if you took people from fifty years in the future, and brought them back to today, they would likely think they had found paradise.

We need to make sure we build institutional knowledge about what we had and what we are losing, and to make sure we educate the next generation about what has been lost, because that is what the fight is for.

But there is another shifting baseline syndrome problem that is not often talked about.

It’s not just ecology.

The scary thing is that while shifting baseline theory is usually used to refer to ecological changes, it can of course refer to any human perceptions. How we see politics, our economic system, our own physical and mental wellbeing, and scores of other things can all be shaped by a shifting baseline.

In politics, in America where I live, there is now no expectation of civility. The people in government increasingly see the “other side” as the enemy. I’ve seen plenty of think pieces lately where the author who covers politics assumes things will go back to normal in four years. That is wishful thinking in my opinion. People who have been persecuted will seek retribution. This is the new normal - the baseline now in America. There is no going back. I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think I am.

Young people in the United States increasingly have a negative view of capitalism because they see it as rigged against them. A survey conducted in August 2022, found that young people (those aged between 18 and 29 years old) in the United States were more likely to have a positive impression of socialism, with 44 percent viewing socialism positively. About 73 percent of those aged 65 and over had a positive impression of capitalism.

A national survey in the United States from the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School reveals the younger generation is losing faith in America itself, expecting little more than misery and disappointment in the future. This is the baseline that the current youth of America see:

• More than 4 in 10 young Americans under 30 say they're "barely getting by" financially, while just 16% report doing well or very well.

• Fewer than half feel a sense of community, with only 17% reporting deep social connection.

• Just 15% believe the country is heading in the right direction, and fewer than one-third approve of President Trump or either party in Congress.

• Traditional life goals are shifting, with only 48% of young Americans saying having children is important.

• Young people who became socially isolated during COVID report higher rates of depression, especially those who were entering high school or college during the pandemic.

• Support for U.S. involvement abroad remains low—and sharply divided by party.

• Only 19% trust the federal government to do the right thing most or all the time.

How are you supposed to be excited about tomorrow, when tomorrow has been stolen from you - and you are told, and you see that this is treated as normal?

This offers an opening.

The good news is that when a baseline is so low, even if it is seen as normal - if you tell the people that live that baseline that improvements can be had, they are inclined to listen. Even if they feel poor, hungry and a bleak future is the baseline, they still know that they want better.

Following a degrowth path can get them there. Continuing on the growth for growth's sake treadmill that destroys our life support systems just so a few dragons can hoard some more gold is a bad deal - even if it is your baseline.

The more we say it out loud, the more people will be inclined to listen.