Strategic Surrender Will Help You Survive

But you may have to start some uncomfortable conversations.

(Credit: Azote for Stockholm Resilience Centre, based on analysis in Richardson et al 2023.)

We have pushed past six of nine planetary boundaries, meaning we live outside of a safe space for humanity in these areas. We need to move back into a safe zone in each to give ourselves the best chance of surviving, let alone thriving.

The longer we stay outside of these planetary boundaries, the harder it will get for people to provide the essentials of life to themselves and their families. The longer we stay outside of these planetary boundaries, the more we will experience famine, drought, extreme heat, extreme weather, and the loss of ecosystems and biodiversity.

For those not familiar with the planetary boundaries, here’s a quick tutorial:

1.      Climate change – Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere trap heat, which will lead to increased heat, more extreme weather events, sea level rise, more flooding, more drought, water scarcity, and increased displacement of people leading to mass migration.

2.      Novel entities – Things introduced into the environment by human beings that are disruptive to Earth’s systems. Think plastics, which have a damaging impact on ecosystems.

3.      Stratospheric Ozone Depletion – The ozone layer in the stratosphere absorbs dangerous ultraviolet radiation from the sun. This planetary boundary is in the safe zone after governments came together in the 1980s to ban ozone-depleting substances.

4.      Atmospheric Aerosol Loading – Atmospheric aerosols are particulate matter or pollution in the atmosphere. They can come from natural sources such as volcanoes, but also from human activity. Aerosols impact cloud formation and atmospheric circulation. This measure is currently in the safe zone.

5.      Ocean acidification – This is simply the amount of acidity in the oceans. If a solution becomes too acidic, it can support less life. The oceans are currently in a safe zone, but that is changing rapidly, and are forecast to be in the danger zone soon. Increased CO2 emissions are making the ocean acidic because the oceans absorb that CO2, making the pH of the oceans more acidic. In time this will make it impossible for marine life with shells to survive. This will cause a collapse of the food chain in the oceans, with devastating consequences for marine life as well as humans.

6.      Biochemical flows – This is the movement of chemical elements and compounds between living organisms in the atmosphere, our waterways and oceans, and the earth's soil. In terms of planetary boundaries, this mainly involves the nitrogen and phosphorus cycles, which have been used on an industrial scale in things like fertilizers and pesticides. When these chemicals are too highly concentrated in ecosystems they can destroy those ecosystems.

7.      Freshwater use – We have crossed this planetary boundary because the human use of water has disrupted the flow of the hydrological cycle that refreshes the water resources of the world.

8.      Land system change – This refers to the changes in the landscape that humans have made on earth. We are currently operating outside of the safe zone here. The most prominent land use problem is deforestation, as forests support many natural systems on which we depend.

9.      Biosphere integrity – This refers to the diversity and health of life on Earth. We are operating outside the safe zone here as we are in the sixth great extinction on Earth.

How we got here.

How we got here is easy.

We did this.

Our actions and consumption of Earth’s resources got us here. This doesn’t mean humankind is inherently evil. We have simply grown as a global civilization in an unsustainable manner. If we continue to operate outside of the safe areas of our planetary boundaries, we will destroy our ability to thrive on this planet. Humanity won’t go extinct anytime soon. However, a planet with runaway greenhouse gas emissions, dead oceans, not enough water or food to support humanity, and the mass extinction of the plants and animals we depend on – will be a harsher one.

Humans will continue to live on Earth, but our quality of life is on track to slowly degrade over time. Life for humans on earth will again be “nasty, brutish and short,” a phrase used to describe by Thomas Hobbes in Leviathan to describe the state of humankind in the 17^th century. (I haven’t read Leviathan in a while, but I highly recommend it).

What we can do?

We need to change the way we are doing this, and by this, I mean living. Here’s what we can do:

Climate change – Stop producing greenhouse gas emissions and remove them from the atmosphere.

Novel entities – Stop producing novel entities like plastics and move to substitutes.

Ozone – We are okay on this one but need to remain vigilant.

Aerosol loading – We are okay on this one but need to keep pollution down.

Ocean acidification – We are near the danger zone. This is highly tied to climate change.

Biochemical flows – Greatly reduce the use of fertilizers and pesticides. If they are used, contain them.

Freshwater use – Water conservation should be part of every water use process.

Land uses – More protection of our land to ensure it is being used in ways to help, not harm.

Biodiversity loss – Protections for our biodiversity.

Simple right?

That list of things to do is impossible … right now. The use of our natural resources to live our lives is so ingrained in the way life is lived on this planet. All of the changes that need to happen will be difficult to achieve and will take time.

But that doesn’t mean you don’t start doing that work. despair doesn’t get anything done.

Making the changes that need to be made will take the actions of the biggest actors on the planet, and that means governments. Governments have control of the carrots and the sticks needed to put in place programs that can address these problems.

But that is not easy. Politics is the ultimate short-term game. Politicians are usually elected by listening to the complaints at the top of the list of their constituents. Until these planetary boundaries get to the top of that list, we will continue this path of incremental change, so that nothing gets disrupted too much.

It is too late for that.

Disruption needs to come, and it can only come from the public telling their leaders that this is the change they want. A new Pew Research Center survey shows that  71% of Americans believe the climate crisis is already causing harm to people in the US, while slightly less than two-thirds believe harmful climate impacts will get worse over their lifetimes.

Will they vote to address this issue NOW? If history is any guide, they will not. It will have to get much worse.  The faster we get to the point where we realize we must address these problems NOW, the better. But we aren’t there yet.

So, if you are reading this – talk about these things, write about these things, and ask your friends and the leaders in your world how they are preparing for these things. Talk to them about the planetary boundaries and ask them what they think we should do. And ask yourself those questions too.

You may get some strange looks from people at first. That’s okay, in many cases, you will be introducing these concepts to people for the first time.

Know when to surrender.

In the 1940s, Costa Rica was a tropical paradise, as at the time about 75 percent of the country was considered rainforest. But by 1987, Costa Rica had lost half of its forest cover, which led to a system in which the government paid local communities to protect the forest through its Payments for Environmental Services Program (PES). This allowed Costa Rica to become the first tropical country to reverse deforestation. 

The PES plan is mainly funded by a tax on fossil fuels and has paid out approximately $500 million to landowners and farmers since implementation. The program is estimated to have saved about 1 million hectares of forest. Costa Rica has benefited from this program as eco-tourism has grown a great deal in the country, with tourism making up more than 10 percent of GDP in 2019 before Covid-19 hit.

A recent study conducted by German and Ecuadorian scientists found that species have returned to regrown rainforests in Ecuador’s Chocó forest. Acoustic monitoring and AI were used to track the return of biodiversity to the forest. The study helps show that reforestation and rewilding can be powerful tools in helping to restore biodiversity and repair environmental damage. 

Such rewilding doesn’t have to come from a tropical rainforest. If you are looking for a more mundane example, take an old golf course in Akron, Ohio that was rewilded and is now the home to 500 different native plants. The spot helps clean the city's air and waterways and has become a meeting spot for the people of the city.

Huge mangrove forests used to dominate the coastlines of the world. Where it is possible, we should let them come back.

Almost 90 percent of deforestation worldwide is caused by agricultural expansion. Livestock grazing is responsible for 50 percent or more in North, Central, and South America.

A 2021 report from the United Nations estimates that rewilding 350 million hectares of degraded terrestrial and aquatic habitats could remove 26 gigatons of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. This potential GHG reduction number is slightly less than the carbon dioxide emitted per year on Earth.  That seems like it would be worth a strategic surrender of this land.  

You have to say it out loud that you want to survive.

The kind of rewilding that will make a difference, that pays for ecosystem services in Costa Rica, that brings back a rainforest in Ecuador, that gets us back to the happy side of our planetary boundaries - those are all examples of surrender. Letting Mother Nature win over human expansion and convenience is a step we need to take. Check out resources like the Global Rewilding Alliance, to get started. Or just jump in and start rewilding and asking our leaders to do more.

That is not easy for politicians to promise. You have to tell them that you want these, you have to ask your neighbors if they want it. You might have to have some uncomfortable conversations where people look at you funny. If that is a price you are willing to pay, start talking.

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