Photo by Eelco Böhtlingk on Unsplash
An interesting project has developed fairly recently that aims to end the era of fossil fuels. It's called The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative (fossilfueltreaty.org). The idea is to stop investment in an expansion of the fossil fuel industry. Those behind the treaty want to provide a global road map to manage a just transition away from coal, oil, and gas to address climate change.
To date, 12 countries have joined the fossil fuel nonproliferation treaty. They are; Vanuatu, Tuvalu, Tonga, Fiji, the Solomon Islands, Niue, Antigua and Barbuda, Timor-Leste, Palau, Somoa, Nauru and Columbia. If you weren’t sure where some of those countries are, or even didn’t know they were countries, don’t worry. I didn’t either. No disrespect to those countries meant, but those behind the treaty make up some of the smallest countries in the world. Most of them are island nations that have been the first to feel the impacts of climate change. The largest county to endorse the treaty is Columbia, which endorsed the treaty at COP 28 in December.
Colombia is an interesting case because between 40 and 50% of its exports are coal and oil. If Colombia is vowing to wind down its coal and oil industries, it may help other nations of a similar size to do the same.
At COP 26 in 2021, a similar effort called the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA) was formed by Denmark and Costa Rica. The goal of the alliance is to elevate the issue of oil and gas production phase-out in international climate dialogues, mobilize action and commitments, and create an international community practice on the issues. In addition to Denmark and Costa Rica, countries such as France, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Italy, and Wales have joined the group. The core members have set measurable targets that are aligned with the Paris 1.5° goal. However, none of the members are currently on track to meet those targets.
Is it all talk?
As was the case with climate emergency declarations, there's a risk that these efforts or all style and no substance and that nothing will come from them. At this point, I think these countries deserve the benefit of the doubt. This is especially the case for Colombia, which by promising to wind down its coal and oil industries, is vowing to overhaul its economy.
As with almost any big change, leaders and politicians need permission to make such bold decisions, and Colombia's actions may help others to do so. It's also up to the people in the countries that want these changes to demand action.
Trust but verify seems a valid path forward here.
What is in the treaty?
The treaty is composed of pillars, which are modeled after the three pillars of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
They are:
Nonproliferation - Start phasing out the coal, oil, and gas industries.
A fair phase out - Moving away from fossil fuel production where nations with the capacity and historical responsibility for emissions transition fastest away from fossil fuels
Just transition - Adoption of clean energy and economic diversification away from fossil fuels so that workers and communities are not left behind.
Those who have drafted the treaty note that the Paris Agreement makes no mention of coal oil or gas, and COP meetings up until COP 28 just last year never even mentioned the phase-out of fossil fuels as a goal. Those who support the treaty want to get these ideas down in writing so that they can more easily be adopted by more countries.
That is all well and good, but …
As any good degrowther knows, just electrifying everything - although a good first step - doesn't solve our problems. In addition to a fossil fuel nonproliferation treaty, we need similar thinking and similar commitments around moving back to the safe side of planetary boundaries that we have breached. you don't just. Could we have a treaty about putting the primacy of nature above the primacy of economic growth? If we are going to have these treaties, I’d like to start there, please.
If the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty helps normalize these kinds of efforts and leads to similar plans to protect biodiversity and to move away from the growth for growth's sake path, then all the better.
Who’s going to write the first draft?