This Was Not a Surprise

Photo by charlesdeluvio on Unsplash

On my drive into town yesterday, the person reporting the weather was all excited that today is going to be 85 degrees F in Central Virginia in November. “Isn’t this weather great?!”

Things that one group thinks are great often are only great on that one day, and then terrible when you stop and think about it.

I’m an American. I’m not a Democrat or Republican – I don’t like joining clubs where I have to agree with the head of the club just because I’m a member. I also like to think for myself. So neither of those clubs want me.

As an American who has taken over 50 trips around the sun, I thought I’d share my thoughts on what just happened with my fellow Americans and those on the outside who don’t understand what just happened. It’s not the end of the world, but it will likely quicken the end of our society, and civilization. In two years, America will turn 250 years old. I don’t see it marking another 250 birthdays, and maybe not even 50 more. That isn’t pessimism or hatred of America – I like America just fine. It’s got its problems, but so does every place. There are plenty of places that don’t have 50 years left. A discussion for another day.

The problems we are facing in America echo those everywhere else.

I never heard the term “late-stage capitalism” until a few years ago, and now I feel I hear it all the time. Capitalism is eating itself, and we are all here to watch it.  Again, no schadenfreude there, just my observation. A system that requires continued growth on a planet that physically does not allow continued growth forever is going to break down at some point. Likely soon.

Buckle up. We are at the top of the hill on that rollercoaster, and the rest of the roller-coaster hasn’t been built. This is going to get messy.  

Donald Trump won. Kamala Harris lost.

I voted for Kamala Harris. I’m not a Democrat, but to me, she was the better choice. Donald Trump is a lifestyle brand, not a leader. He isn’t fit to be President, but that is not part of the qualifications. Being more popular is the criterion, and he was. Yes, it would have been helpful if there was more courage in our political leaders, and somewhere along the way Trump was barred from running again for you know, inciting and insurrection, or the 90+ felony counts against him, some of which he was found guilty of. But politics isn’t about doing what is right, it is about winning. The Republican party realized that Trump gave them the best chance to win, so they rolled the dice. And they were right.

America doesn’t love Trump. They don’t even like him. He has never had an approval rating above 50%. I’ve heard some people say that Harris lost because of misogyny and racism, and I’m sure that is the case to some small degree, but for the most part, Americans don’t really care about what chromosomes you have or what your skin tone is, they care about whether you are going to make their lives better.

This is how our economy is designed to work, yet we blame whoever is in office for it.

Late-stage capitalism has arrived, and it is unforgiving. In the wake of Covid, inflation spiked all over the world. I’m writing this in a café in a grocery store, where I will shop in a few minutes and pay about 50% more for groceries than I did 4 years ago. I’m relatively well off. Most people aren’t. Voters’ top concern wasn’t whether Trump is a jerk (they generally think he is), they were concerned about what is happening in their life today. Things aren’t great for your average person in the world compared to how it used to be. That isn’t their current leaders' fault as much as the system we have built is breaking down. Oligarchs have all the money, and wealth hasn’t gone up much for most of us in our lifetimes (after inflation).

Figures for the US courtesy of CBO.GOV

Most people don’t make the connection that a lot of this wealth disparity in the US is due to “trickle down” economics pushed by Republicans for the last 40 years or so ago, where all the tax breaks we gave to the wealthy were supposed to trickle down to the rest of us. It didn’t.

People are worse off than they were before because that is a design feature of the system, it isn’t a flaw. Unless you are in the top 10% the invisible hand is giving you the middle finger. But you don’t see it. It’s invisible.

At least the Republicans tend to be honest about wanting to give all the money to their funders – while scapegoating mostly minority communities that can’t fight back. Democrats want to give most of the money to the oligarchs too, because you have to do that in our political system, they just want to pay lip service to helping out everyone. Look at the graphic above. There were plenty of times in those 35+ years when the Democrats were in charge of all three branches of government in the US, and they never had the courage to fix that system.

And here we are.

Things are hard all over.

This year, 2024, saw more people go to the polls than at any year in human history. Incumbents who inconveniently have to submit themselves to the will of the people periodically did poorly. In Germany, France, the UK, EU parliamentary elections, India, Japan, South Africa and now in the US, the incumbent party did poorly. Canada’s elections are up soon, and all expectations are that the liberals will be turfed out and the conservatives will take over.

Yes, this is often the case. But in a constantly deteriorating world, where environmental crises will only increase each year, debts are already sky-high, and the cost of living has increased and will only increase because of the aforementioned environmental collapse and debt overhang, things will not get better for … well likely for the rest of your life.

That is a recipe for incumbents to get thrown out again and again. In such an environment where the world is running down, people look to make the best of what’s still around. Populist leaders who promise easy solutions and scapegoat people who can’t defend themselves will always get the ear of most people who are just trying to survive. The US is structured so that many of us are always on the precipice of not surviving.

My cynical advice to Kamala Harris is to start blaming Trump for everything wrong in life, today. Do it every single day. Unless the laws of physics are repealed, things will get appreciably worse over the next four years. Become a populist and blame Republicans for everything every single day.

My sincere advice is to tell people that the current system is set up to keep them on the precipice of ruin and that you can change that. Degrowth is the answer. You can have a system that destroys itself but allows oligarchs some fun for the next few decades, or you can have a more egalitarian system, where you work less, enjoy your life more, and don’t live in fear of not having enough. You can live in a system where you aren’t told to fear your fellow man.

I don’t expect my sincere advice to be taken.

After all, it is 85 degrees F in Central Virginia in mid-November, isn’t that great?!