When Asking Politely Doesn't Work

Fixing our world may take a bit more strategic impoliteness.

Photo by Katie Rodriguez on Unsplash

The situation is urgent, yet the sense of urgency from our leaders is … uninspiring.

Current global policies have us on track for about 2.7C warming above pre-industrial levels this century. Nationally Defined Contributions (NDCs) are CO2 reductions that nations are committed to meeting. These are just words at this point, and whether these NDCs will be honored is debatable. But if all NDCs are met, we are looking at global warming of about 2.4C. The most optimistic scenario – think lottery odds – has us “only” heating the earth to 1.8C above industrial levels. We are now about 1.1C above industrial levels (as of March 2023), however, this summer temperatures briefly spiked to about 1.5C above industrial levels. Congratulations world, we are speed-running this game. (Ask your kids what that means. It’s not good).  

So, what does extreme warming look like?

Put simply, the hotter our world gets, all the bad things happen more often.

The IPCC reported that an extreme heat event that would have happened once per decade in a climate without human influence, would happen 4.1 times a decade at 1.5C of warming, and 5.6 times at 2C. By 2.7C, you get that nasty climate surprise nearly every year. It is a similar story for severe weather, flooding, and forest fires.

But most of those numbers look at the end of the century when most people reading these words will be long gone. So, no worries for those reading this - right?

Not so fast. It is already getting really bad and will get worse every year.

Every 0.1 degree of warming beyond current levels will expose about 140 million people to extreme conditions.  The increase in global average surface temperatures we have seen thus far has already moved about 600 million people out of the "human climate niche" in which we have comfortably lived for most of human history. Moving from just 1.1C now, to the 1.5C that we are likely to see as a minimum in the next decade will mean about 560 million people on Earth will move out of this climate niche, meaning that it will be difficult if not impossible for them to stay where they are without taking on great costs to adapt. Many of them will leave where they are now, and you will see a mass migration of people the likes of which the world has never seen. (That is a column in and of itself for another time).

And this is just focusing on climate change. This says nothing of the environmental degradation we face from plastic pollution, nitrogen and phosphorus loading, degraded land use, ocean acidification, and other planetary boundaries we have crossed.

Yes, some governments have taken steps in the right direction. But leaders who have signed us all up for a 2.7C future are not the most inspiring of leaders.

I was raised to be polite, but not that polite. At some point, if your leaders are indifferent to the survival of you and your children you might have to speak up. You might have to give them a shove.

They don’t speak for us.

Those in power are the protectors of the status quo. They are not innately evil people – that is just how power works. Once you get it, you want to keep it. Hence … protection of the status quo.

But there is a way around this.

You have to commit to being impolite, to being loud, to not deferring to those in power, and perhaps even to some civil disobedience.

Take the example of the victory of the environmental group Extinction Rebellion in the Netherlands last week. The group ended its protests last week because the Dutch government promised to draft a plan to phase out fossil fuel subsidies worth about 39.7 to 46.4 billion euros ($42-49.5 billion).

Be a participant in your own rescue.

You aren’t far off when you say one person can’t make a difference. But millions can. So go and find them. Read, write, talk, organize, kick people in the ass, vote, vote with your wallet, focus on the big things that matter.

Cultures change all the time, so grab the reigns or steering wheel when you can and get going.

Civil disobedience works. Try it. Yes, it might be a bit uncomfortable. But you know what is more uncomfortable? Heat stroke, drowning, starving, burning to death, or in the best-case scenario, having your standard of living erode every year for the rest of your life.

How many people does it take to make a significant change? It is probably less than you think.

Erica Chenoweth, Professor of Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School, has shown through her research that it usually takes about 3.5% of a population to actively participate in protests to bring about political change. She has found that non-violent protests are far more effective than violent protests.

Chenoweth and Maria Stephan, a researcher at the ICNC, studied 323 violent and nonviolent campaigns. They found that the average non-violent campaign attracted about four times as many participants as violent ones.

They found that once about 3.5% of the population participates in the action, success is usually around the corner.

It is important to understand what “actively participating” means. It means more than clicking “like” a clever article about non-violent resistance. Sorry about that. But clicking “like” is appreciated.

It means physical actions that can have political or economic consequences or both. It could be a worker’s strike, a consumer boycott, or a physical protest like the one recently in the Netherlands.

Let’s look at the United States, where I live. There are currently about 336 million people in the United States (I’m rounding up). In case you’re wondering 3.5% of 336 million is about 12 million (I’m rounding up).

People think climate change action is less popular than it is.

So why don’t we see 12 million people on the streets in America or the equivalent number in other countries?

You can go to the Carnegie Endowment For International Peace Climate Protest Tracker to get a general snapshot of the size and scope of climate protests in a country. If you look at the United States, you can see that there is activity, but nothing with eye-opening numbers. These numbers are growing and will continue to do so as the impacts of climate change continue to manifest at increasing rates.

Also, protests aren’t the only way to be active. You can be active with your decisions as a consumer, or as a voter, or as a laborer or student on strike. But it is very important … and I can’t emphasize this enough … that you are not quiet. You are trying to save humanity. Don’t keep that to yourself.

Research out of Princeton in 2022 by Elke Weber and Gerhard R. Andlinger showed that most Americans underestimate the popularity of climate change action. This point of view results in people confirming to themselves what they think others believe, which can weaken support for policies that address climate change.

A study similar to the 3.5% solution mentioned above states that if you have about 25% of a population committed to a change, you will begin to see a shift in culture. The 2018 study, led by Damon Centola, an associate professor at the Annenberg School for Communication at the University of Pennsylvania, found that tipping points in cultural norms begin happening when about 25% of a population has committed to that change.

Let’s end with one more Ivy League Study to perhaps inspire you. Since 2012, the Yale Program on Climate Communication has surveyed Americans about their views on climate change. They have separated survey respondents into six groups. One of the groups is those who are alarmed. This alarmed group is convinced global warming is real, human-caused, and an urgent threat. These “alarmed” people believe strong policy responses are needed.

In 2012, only 12 percent of Americans were alarmed. In 2022, 26 percent of Americans were alarmed. Just a reminder, 26% is just over that 25% threshold for a culture change to take place.

In America at least, it looks like the people are on the precipice of committing to action on climate change.

Give them a shove.