You Don't Need Everyone to Save the World

Just 25% of them.

Don’t despair, you don't need to convince the whole world that climate change is a real problem. You don’t need to convince half the world that breaching our planetary boundaries is a real problem. You only have to convince about 25% of the people. Oh, and you’ve got to make sure those people are passionate about it – not just that they believe someone should do something.

Easy, right?

An influential study published in Science in 2018 shows that a committed minority can start moving the majority to change if they have about 25% of the population on their side.

The experiment behind the study was led by Damon Centola, associate professor at the Annenberg School of Communications at the University of Pennsylvania.

Members of small groups (20 – 30 people) were shown an image of a face and told to name it. In some cases, the researchers planted people who worked to change the minds of those who had originally decided on a name. These “flies in the ointment” were largely unsuccessful in changing the minds of the group until their numbers reached about 25% of the group.

It seems that when about 25% of a group feels strongly about something, they can change the decision-making of the group.

The researchers noted that other competing minority points of view and a lack of cohesion in the group trying to change minds can negatively impact the ability of a minority to change a cultural norm. In such cases, however, the percentage needed to change the cultural norm is still well under 50% +1.

Where are we on that 25% threshold?

Since 2012, the Yale Program on Climate Communication has surveyed Americans about their views on climate change. They have separated survey respondents into six groups or “Six Americas”. The six Americas are:

Alarmed – Convinced global warming is real, human-caused, and an urgent threat. Strong policy needed.

Concerned – Similar to the alarmed, but think climate impacts are distant, not an immediate priority.

Cautions – Haven’t made up their minds about the causes of climate change and its seriousness.

Disengaged – Know little about climate change, not interested.

Doubtful – Do not think climate change is happening or it is just part of a natural cycle.

Dismissive – Do not believe that global warming is happening, human-caused, or a threat.

We can assume that if all Americans were in the alarmed camp, climate change action would happen immediately. But we aren’t there. The minds of Americans are moving in the right direction, but not fast enough. In 2012, only 12 percent of Americans were alarmed, and 26 percent were concerned. Those numbers were up to 26 percent and 27 percent respectively in 2022. In late 2023, when the study was last updated, there were 28 percent of Americans who said that they were “alarmed” about climate change.

You can see that we have passed the 25% tipping point. That is good news, and things related to climate action are happening, but still not fast enough. The challenge of coordination among a large population and competing interests from other minority groups (those opposing climate action such as the fossil fuel lobby) are pushing against the efforts of the passionate minority pushing for more climate action.

As more of the country becomes “alarmed”, more serious action starts to be taken. We will see more “environmental” candidates winning local elections, and more previous fence-sitters offering slightly more serious plans so that they can get on some committee in the future when something actually happens.

Educate yourself and each other about climate change and the other environmental damage we are doing. A populace that is educated about the devastation that awaits them because of the inaction of our leadership will eventually vote that leadership out. But it needs to happen soon to mitigate as much damage as possible.

A reality check.

A Pew Research Center poll from June 2023, asked Americans about the country’s top problems. Climate change finished tenth on the list of issues that Americans think are very big problems. Only 39 percent of those surveyed thought that climate change was a very big problem.

I’m sorry, but if climate change is the number ten problem on a list of problems, it doesn’t get solved.

That twenty-eight percent of Americans are alarmed about climate change shows that these Americans are poised for action. But poised for action is not action. It takes a quarter of a population to be actively working for change for change to take place.

America isn’t there yet.

Actively working for climate change to be addressed doesn’t have to be marching in the streets or knocking on doors. But if you are concerned, it should be something. Think about what you can do and do that. Join like-minded people and educate people who are looking for more information. Educate yourself and figure out what you can do.

Here’s one I’ll throw out to get you started.

Ask every leader in government and at the largest companies where you live - on camera - whether they have an apocalypse bunker. Reporters should be doing this as well. It is a fair question. The question isn’t impolite. It is a practical question when civilization may be ending.

If they answer Yes – Follow up with whether they encourage the populace at large to get bunkers.

If they answer No – Then ask them why not. Isn’t climate change going to make Earth a living hell? If they have the money to escape that, shouldn’t they have a bunker?

Imagine the kinds of discussions a society would start having if the bunker status of the 1,000 most powerful people in their country is public knowledge.

That’s my idea.

What’s yours?