Thanks for your insights, Richard. Unfortunately, that all seems very plausible to me. Please share with others if you think they would like to read what I write.
There are so many wildcards in play, it's difficult to predict the future other than in broad sweeps. The obvious one here is Trump and the Heritage Foundation's ambitions, which will end any attempt to deal with the climate crisis or the fact that oil will become economically unviable to extract in the near future. Inflation is locked into the future as well, think basics, food, and most people have little savings to cover a single emergency. Insurers will continue to pull out of markets or make rates unaffordable. This points to a ripple effect across the market — foreclosures and rising rents as homeownership is affected. In areas where heat is deadly, the body counts will rise. Power grids not designed for these extremes, and air conditioners will fail. Everyone will become versed in wet bulb temperature.
Manufacturing and consumption will fall, all these leading to a permanent and progressive depression. The Panama Canal became so low from drought as to jam it. Before an inhabitable biosphere stops us comes massive economic suffering, overwhelmed hospitals, neighbor to neighbor violence, and a huge jump in homelessness.
After three years pursuing this subject, I feel more and more we're simply too late to change what is to come. The Amazon is likely tipped, and I suspect the Arctic is as well.
We weren't told the truth decades ago, and we certainly aren't being told the truth today. Our best promoted idea, the Green New Deal, is a lie in itself, and corporations are finding myriad ways to cheat on their commitments. Renewables aren't being used to wean off of oil, but to fuel more consumption. Turbines are even being used to assist in pumping oil. Ludicrous. A glance at the carbon credit scamming is a good study, and every billion dollar disaster and dime put into the military reduces our ability to respond effectively and most of the populace has no clue as you point out. It's a real circus, and the tent is about to blow over.
Your analysis instinctively feels right. In addition to our tortoise-like ability to contemplate change you have to add the fear factor. This tends to generate a vice-like grip on the present and a blind faith in those who claim to offer a return to 'better' times.
I assumed that in the near future capitalism would collapse, oil and gas would effectively run out and that after a very difficult and potentially bloody period the world might begin to look a better place. The projected 'benefits' of AI have done much to scotch that assumption. Global autocracy seems more likely if the tech becomes reality.
The saddest assumption, though, is that we are a naturally competitive species. Darwin's Survival of The Fittest is often, though erroneously, quoted in support. Neo-liberalism has cemented this idea around the developed world and it will take a lot of work to undo it. I have been heartened, though, by the spread of regenerative farming which has worked through neighbouring farmers seeing how well these techniques work over the fence. There is something to learn here about how to loosen the grip of those still clinging to a sinking life raft.
You've done a really fine job of weaving several different threads together into a story that ought to give people pause if they would only read it, which most won't. We are going to get degrowth, whether we plan for it or not, and we're going to get it good and hard. I remain convinced that the slide of liberal democracies into creeping fascism is a way for elites to circle the wagons and protect their capital while the plebs bear the costs and the effects of shortages. Control, control, control…
yes, our assumptions are critical, and very likely to be wrong about the future. It's very hard for most of us to understand both intellectually and emotionally what the future will be like with climate chaos and ecological breakdown. When we think of the difficult changes required we fall back on the assumptions that the future will be OK, so dont do a fair comparison of what the future might be if we take uncomfortable action now. We are trading convenience and comfort for survival.
Thanks for your insights, Richard. Unfortunately, that all seems very plausible to me. Please share with others if you think they would like to read what I write.
Take care,
Matt
There are so many wildcards in play, it's difficult to predict the future other than in broad sweeps. The obvious one here is Trump and the Heritage Foundation's ambitions, which will end any attempt to deal with the climate crisis or the fact that oil will become economically unviable to extract in the near future. Inflation is locked into the future as well, think basics, food, and most people have little savings to cover a single emergency. Insurers will continue to pull out of markets or make rates unaffordable. This points to a ripple effect across the market — foreclosures and rising rents as homeownership is affected. In areas where heat is deadly, the body counts will rise. Power grids not designed for these extremes, and air conditioners will fail. Everyone will become versed in wet bulb temperature.
Manufacturing and consumption will fall, all these leading to a permanent and progressive depression. The Panama Canal became so low from drought as to jam it. Before an inhabitable biosphere stops us comes massive economic suffering, overwhelmed hospitals, neighbor to neighbor violence, and a huge jump in homelessness.
After three years pursuing this subject, I feel more and more we're simply too late to change what is to come. The Amazon is likely tipped, and I suspect the Arctic is as well.
We weren't told the truth decades ago, and we certainly aren't being told the truth today. Our best promoted idea, the Green New Deal, is a lie in itself, and corporations are finding myriad ways to cheat on their commitments. Renewables aren't being used to wean off of oil, but to fuel more consumption. Turbines are even being used to assist in pumping oil. Ludicrous. A glance at the carbon credit scamming is a good study, and every billion dollar disaster and dime put into the military reduces our ability to respond effectively and most of the populace has no clue as you point out. It's a real circus, and the tent is about to blow over.
Your analysis instinctively feels right. In addition to our tortoise-like ability to contemplate change you have to add the fear factor. This tends to generate a vice-like grip on the present and a blind faith in those who claim to offer a return to 'better' times.
I assumed that in the near future capitalism would collapse, oil and gas would effectively run out and that after a very difficult and potentially bloody period the world might begin to look a better place. The projected 'benefits' of AI have done much to scotch that assumption. Global autocracy seems more likely if the tech becomes reality.
The saddest assumption, though, is that we are a naturally competitive species. Darwin's Survival of The Fittest is often, though erroneously, quoted in support. Neo-liberalism has cemented this idea around the developed world and it will take a lot of work to undo it. I have been heartened, though, by the spread of regenerative farming which has worked through neighbouring farmers seeing how well these techniques work over the fence. There is something to learn here about how to loosen the grip of those still clinging to a sinking life raft.
You've done a really fine job of weaving several different threads together into a story that ought to give people pause if they would only read it, which most won't. We are going to get degrowth, whether we plan for it or not, and we're going to get it good and hard. I remain convinced that the slide of liberal democracies into creeping fascism is a way for elites to circle the wagons and protect their capital while the plebs bear the costs and the effects of shortages. Control, control, control…
yes, our assumptions are critical, and very likely to be wrong about the future. It's very hard for most of us to understand both intellectually and emotionally what the future will be like with climate chaos and ecological breakdown. When we think of the difficult changes required we fall back on the assumptions that the future will be OK, so dont do a fair comparison of what the future might be if we take uncomfortable action now. We are trading convenience and comfort for survival.
I'm ready to wear a t-shirt in January in Canada, but I assume I won't get the chance to do so.